Tuesday, August 4, 2009

GLD $97.80 But.., S&P 500 Extremelly Overbought, Shanghai Likely To Begin Pullback in August, $US Oversold Near Term, Longer Term $US Bear Trends, Risk Management Key

B"H
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below.
Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.
Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock

*GLD-Continued Increased Probability Trending To $97.80 BUT Hitting $92.35 First Cannot Be Ruled Out
*S&P 500 Remains in Extreme Overbought Territory-While Seasonal Trends Suggest Rally Could Continue Through Aug. 11th-Risk Management On Long Positions Is Essential Near Term.  Longer Term, Likely After Correction, S&P 500 1,250 Possible
*"Shanghai To Drop on Warning"-Technical Analysis, Carter Worth Oppenheimer (Link Below)
*$US At Yearly Lows-If Stock Selloff Begins, $US Could Easily Rally Very Fast-Pushing Stocks & Commodities Lower.  Longer Term $US Trends Very Bearish.
*S&P 500 Strong Resistance 1,040-1,099.23

GLD TRADED HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JUNE 4th TODAY, CONTINUED INCREASED PROBABILITY OF TRENDING TO $97.80, BUT DROPPING TO $92.35 FIRST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
There continues to be an increased probability of GLD trending to $97.80 corresponding to a very large institutional trade that settled at $97.80 on July 8th at 1:57pm.  Today, GLD hit its highest level since June 4th.  Gold continues to show strong price momentum in the face of a weak stock market today.  A move down to $92.35 corresponding to an institutional sell in the after hours on July 31st cannot be ruled before trending to $97.80.  As always, risk management essential.

S&P 500 EXTREME OVERBOUGHT-1,040-1,099.23 CANNOT BE RULED OUT-BUT PULLBACK INCREASINGLY LIKELY
The S&P 500 has traded in & out of positive territory all day & remains virtually unchanged.  Technical indicators show that the Index remains at extreme overbought levels.  While the S&P could continue to move higher, it is important to note that many Technical Analysts are noting the S&P 500 & Shanghai Index extreme overbought measures.  It is wise for anyone holding long positions in this market to tighten risk management measures.  A move towards stronger resistance at the 1,040-1,099.23 cannot be ruled out before a correction & while seasonal trends suggest a continuation of the uptrend through August 11th, realizing the extreme overbought nature of the S&P 500 at this point is important.  The proper use of Stop-Loss Orders should allow traders to capitalize if the market continues higher.  Alternatively, if a correction begins near term, Stop-Loss Orders should successfully protect traders from the increasingly likely correction.  Longer term, some technical analysts have pointed towards an increased probability of trending towards S&P 500 1,250.  While this is certainly possible, a move towards these levels will very likely not occur before at least a 10% correction on the S&P 500.  Again, risk management is key. 

SHANGHAI SELL-OFF LIKELY, ADDITIONAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTING SHANGHAI DROP LIKELY, CARTER WORTH TECHNICAL ANALYST OPPENHEIMER & CO.
Carter Worth, Chief Technical Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. added his name to the long list of technical analysts who are calling for a major correction in Chinese Stocks.  It is obvious that a Chinese pullback would have an immediate similar impact on US stocks.  To view yesterdays compilation of Technical Analysts suggesting a likely 25%-33% drop in Chinese Stocks beginning sometime in August please click here:
Shanghai Index Correction Ranging From 25%-33% Likely To Begin Sometime in August-Technical Analysis From Robin Griffiths From Cazenove Capital & Elliot Wave Inc.
China Likely To Drop on 'Warning', Carter Worth, Chief Technical Analyst Oppenheimer Co.

$US AT 1 YEAR LOWS-IF A SELLOFF DEVELOPS IN STOCKS, $US WILL LIKELY RALLY VERY FAST DUE TO SHORT COVERING.  LONGER TERM, $US IN VERY BEARISH TREND.
The $US is sitting at 1 year lows & while longer term trends for the $US are quite bearish, it is worth noting that any stock sell-off will very likely prompt a very strong & fast $US rally.  This will likely hasten any potential Stock & Commodity selloff.  This further strengthens the need for proper risk management on any Stock or Commodity "Long" position moving forward.  Again, longer term $US trends are quite bearish, but near term, the $US is registering very oversold technical signals.

BOTTOM LINE-RISK MANAGEMENT INCLUDING STOPS SHOULD ALLOW TRADERS TO STAY IN THE MARKET UNTIL CORRECTION BEGINS WHETHER NOW OR CLOSER TO S&P 500 1,040-1,099.23 & AUGUST 11TH.
While a continuation of the rally in Stocks & Commodities cannot be ruled out, the growing number of extreme overbought technical measures for stocks & commodities should at the very least be noted.  The proper use of risk management including stop-loss orders should allow traders to capitalize if the rally continues towards stronger upward resistance around the 1,040-1,099.23 level & the August 11th traditional seasonal trend change from Bullish to Bearish.  If the rally continues towards these levels stops will not be hit.  Alternatively, if a drop begins, proper risk management should protect traders moving forward.  Realizing the risk in the market here is highly suggested. 
Good Trading
-------------------------------------------------------
Market Messages Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/
Follow in Real Time on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
@chartingstock
Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands
The Benefits Of Using Technical Analysis In Making Trading Decisions:
If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change
Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:
The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful:
-------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, commodities, stocks or any investment vehicle whatsoever. Futures, Options, Stock, Currencies, Commodities and all trading HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets (and all equity, currency, commodity markets). DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed herein and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be
construed as specific advisory recommendations. Stock market investments are risky. They don't provide fixed returns and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. All securities investments entail
the risk of great and sudden financial loss. Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your securities. No assurance is given that anything
described here will be successful. The message contains neither recommendations nor solicitations to buy or sell securities. Documents are published solely for information and educational purposes and do not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Nothing in the above should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of particular stocks or in regard to overall investment strategies.
No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, or correctness of the information contained in the above. Projections and
opinions expressed constitute the personal opinions of the authors and are set forth for informational and educational purposes only. I am not liable for
damages caused by actions taken as a result of the information in the above sites, guides, newsletters and e-books or any of their following pages, ads and
links. The expressed analysis and projections are subject to change without notice. No information above constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold
any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein. We do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature,
potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy, and you shall be
fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances,
investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:

BELOW MY POSTS & INTERNAL http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/ LINKS ARE "SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT LINKS" I HAVE NO CONNECTION WITH THESE SPONSORED

ADVERTISEMENTS. PLEASE FOLLOW IN REAL TIME ON TWITTER AT: @CHARTINGSTOCK http://twitter.com/chartingstock Good Trading
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Friday, July 17, 2009

B"H
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below.
Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.
Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock

*Options Expiration Today-Increased Volatility Up & Down Especially First 1 Hour & Last 2 Hours Of Trading
*Art Cashin Notes Market Near Term "Overbought"-Although The Rally *Could* Continue-Risk Management Key http://www.cnbc.com/id/31948775
*Seasonality Suggests An Overall Up Trend From Approximately July 15th-August 11th But Dips Along The Way Likely.
*Downward Chart Spikes For SPY
*GLD Update-Could Very Easily Follow Market If Near Term Pull Back Develops Although Longer Term...
*Natural Gas-Mixed Signals-1 Technical Analysis Article Which Is Quite Bullish BUT Impt To Note The Major Flaws In The UNG ETF Which Could Very Easily Make That ETF Underperform The Underlying Commodity.  Additionally Worth Noting Other Technical Analysts Pointing to additional lower lows for Nat Gas/UNG.  Overall Risk For Longing Or Shorting Nat Gas High.
*Doug Kass Article-Cash Preservation Key
*Bottom Line-Likely Current Resistance Levels Cause Market To Stall Or Pullback Although Continuation Of Rally Through Mid August Possible.  Longer Term-Risk Management Essential


This morning marks Options Expiration & as always traders should expect an increased level of volatility on the up & down side especially close to the opening & closing bells.  Overall the market is near term overbought after a large run from Monday morning through today.  There is an increased probability of Stocks & Commodities giving back part of this weeks gains especially after Options Expiration which is today.   Likely Levels which the SPY could hit if a give back develops include:
$93.3655 $93.23 $93.04 $93.015 $90.6795 $87.24 $86.0069 Although it is essential to note that a bounce before the $86-$87.24 level is also likely.  Overall seasonal trends suggest an uptrend from July 15th-August 11th but drops along the way are also quite likely.  As always risk management is key.  Several respected traders speculate that at lest part of this weeks gains can be attributed to market players proping up certain Stocks & ETF's in order to trigger highly profitable options trades.  Whether or not that is the case risk management as always continues to be essential.  Near term, GLD will very likely follow the market down if a pullback develops.  Longer term it remains very likely that GLD will trend towards $97.80.  Again, risk management is key.


NATURAL GAS-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & EXTREME RISK WITH THE ETF UNG
Included below is a technical analysis article on Natural Gas.  It is Worth Repeating Their are major major Flaws With The ETF UNG & That There Are Other Technical Analysts Who Continue To Be Quite Bearish On Nat Gas.  The ETF UNG experienced an intraday trading halt over concerns by the CFTC on possible Market "Manipulation" whereby the ETF was artificially proping up the price of the underlying asset Natural Gas.  There is speculation over how share issuance of this ETF will evolve in the coming months.  Overall, the risk in trading Nat Gas from the long or short side is incredibly high & that risk is exponentially higher when trading the ETF UNG.  Historical analysis shows that UNG has has been a complete disaster losing approximately 80% of its value from its peak in June of 2008 to now.  Again, The incredible risk associated with Nat Gas & Especially UNG should be included in any possible decision.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis From Phil Flynn, Vice President Of Research At PFG Best in Chicago Posted On Bloomberg.com

BOTTOM LINE
As respected Hedge Fund Manager Doug Kass noted in the article below, Cash preservation continues to be key.
The analysis in his article is quite good & worth reading.  The bottom line from my perspective is risk management cannot be understated moving forward.  Taking a broader perspective of the market, the S&P 500 remains locked in a relatively tight trading range from approximately April 29th-Now.  Yes the rally may continue.  That being said, for longer term (i.e. past the next 30 days), ignoring the major problems in the economy & the major long term technical Bearish trends will very likely punish traders who do not implement proper downside protection.
Good Trading
-------------------------------------------------------
Market Messages Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/
Follow in Real Time on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
@chartingstock
Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands
The Benefits Of Using Technical Analysis In Making Trading Decisions:
If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change
Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:
The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful:
-------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, commodities, stocks or any investment vehicle whatsoever. Futures, Options, Stock, Currencies, Commodities and all trading HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets (and all equity, currency, commodity markets). DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed herein and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. Stock market investments are risky. They don't provide fixed returns and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. All securities investments entail the risk of great and sudden financial loss. Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your securities. No assurance is given that anything described here will be successful. The message contains neither recommendations nor solicitations to buy or sell securities. Documents are published solely for information and educational purposes and do not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Nothing in the above should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of particular stocks or in regard to overall investment strategies.No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, or correctness of the information contained in the above. Projections and opinions expressed constitute the personal opinions of the authors and are set forth for informational and educational purposes only. I am not liable for
damages caused by actions taken as a result of the information in the above sites, guides, newsletters and e-books or any of their following pages, ads and links. The expressed analysis and projections are subject to change without notice. No information above constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein. We do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature, potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy, and you shall be fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:

BELOW MY POSTS & INTERNAL http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/ LINKS ARE "SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT LINKS" I HAVE NO CONNECTION WITH THESE SPONSORED

ADVERTISEMENTS. PLEASE FOLLOW IN REAL TIME ON TWITTER AT: @CHARTINGSTOCKhttp://twitter.com/chartingstock Good Trading  © 2009 chartingstock All Rights Reserved  Please Feel Free To Forward Links To The Blog.  Thank You

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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

SPY Volatility, GLD Upward $97.80

B"H
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.
Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.
Messages/Posts Will Be Updated As Time Permits-With Additional Information & Links
Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock

*Extreme Volatility On Markets Today.  One Cannot Rule Out A Large Drop Or A Bounce Higher-Risk Management Essential

*GLD Upward Chart Spike $97.80 From $89.241 At 1:57 pm.  There is An Increased Probability Of GLD Trending Towards This Level Relatively Soon.  Risk Management Key.

-------------------------------------------------------
Market Messages Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/
Follow in Real Time on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
@chartingstock
Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands
The Benefits Of Using Technical Analysis In Making Trading Decisions:
If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change
Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:
The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful:
-------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, commodities, stocks or any investment vehicle whatsoever. Futures, Options, Stock, Currencies, Commodities and all trading HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets (and all equity, currency, commodity markets). DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed herein and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be
construed as specific advisory recommendations. Stock market investments are risky. They don't provide fixed returns and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. All securities investments entail
the risk of great and sudden financial loss. Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your securities. No assurance is given that anything
described here will be successful. The message contains neither recommendations nor solicitations to buy or sell securities. Documents are published solely for information and educational purposes and do not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Nothing in the above should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of particular stocks or in regard to overall investment strategies.
No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, or correctness of the information contained in the above. Projections and
opinions expressed constitute the personal opinions of the authors and are set forth for informational and educational purposes only. I am not liable for
damages caused by actions taken as a result of the information in the above sites, guides, newsletters and e-books or any of their following pages, ads and
links. The expressed analysis and projections are subject to change without notice. No information above constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold
any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein. We do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature,
potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy, and you shall be
fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances,
investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:

BELOW MY POSTS & INTERNAL http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/ LINKS ARE "SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT LINKS" I HAVE NO CONNECTION WITH THESE SPONSORED

ADVERTISEMENTS. PLEASE FOLLOW IN REAL TIME ON TWITTER AT: @CHARTINGSTOCK http://twitter.com/chartingstock Good Trading
© 2009 chartingstock All Rights Reserved

Posted by at

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

S&P 500, Oil & Financials Continue To Show Bearish Signals, Dennis Gartman Notes Gold Likely To Trend Down Towards $880-Risk Management Key

B"H
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.
Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly:http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html
Messages/Posts Will Be Updated As Time Permits-With Additional Information & Links:
Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
*UPDATE-Rally Possible Today-Thursday July 1st & 2nd Due To Begining of 3rd Quarter. Art Cashin Referenced This Trend Wednesday July 1st-But Warned That Other Factors May Inhibit This Traditional Trend.
*Gold-Despite Holding Morning Lows-Dennis Gartman Bearish Looking For Move Down Towards $880/Ounce
*S&P 500-Very Bearish Head & Shoulders Pattern-If Confirmed Increased Probability of Driving S&P 500 Down Towards 800
*SPY Down Spike= $91.38 At 4:05pm-Increased Probability Of Trading Down Towards $91.38, $90.08, $87.97 &$87.53 Initially
*SPY Up Spikes= $92.7408 At 4:15pm 4:30pm & 4:32pm-Increased Probability Of Trading Up Towards $92.7408, $95.08, $95.88
*Unemployment Data Released Thursday Morning-July 2 At 8:30am
*Oil Bearish Reversal Today Supports Possibility Of Oil Down Trend Since June 11, 2009-Increasingly Likely Oil Heads Lower Near-Intermediate Term
*Financials Peaked May 8th & Have Been Bearish Since. Important to Note That the 2 Main Drivers of the Spring Rally, Energy & Financials Have Reversed Direction & Have Been Showing Bearish Technicals For Some Time.

The S&P 500 Closed Down -.85% & Continues To Be Below The 200 Day Exponential Moving Average. The SPY ETFwhich closed down -.81% managed to close .03 cents above the 21 Day EMA & above the 100 & 50 day EMAs.Overall, one cannot rule out a pop higher towards the $95.88 level on the SPY. That being said, there is a very Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the S&P 500. For initial pattern confirmation the Index will need to drop below lows set on June 23 which correspond to $88.85 on the SPY. This pattern has the potential to drive the index down towards the 800 level & should be monitored for confirmation. Overall, Risk Management on Longs & Shorts continues to be key. A major market moving event is approaching with Thursday mornings July 2 8:30am Unemployment Report.

GOLD
Despite Gold holding its lows of the morning-it is important to note that respected commodities trader Dennis Gartmanis looking for Gold to trend down towards $880/Ounce.
To view todays previous comments on Gold please visit this link:

OIL
Oil had a upward price rejection this morning & the Bearish move especially one day after extraordinarily Bullish news coming from China regarding there Strategic Oil Reserves is worth noting. As I wrote about on the day Oil hit its current intermediate high, June 11 & again this morning, it is increasingly likely (not definite-but likely) that Oil trends lower in the coming weeks/months. For more:

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 has traded in a tight range from approximately April 29 today July 2 between approximately 856.85-956.23. This morning Art Cashin noted a large % move is coming but it is still unclear whether that move will be a Break "Out"/Up or Down. Patience & overall risk management continue to be key. The 2 Sectors which powered most of the spring 2009 rally, Financials & Energy have reversed direction & continue to show Bearish signals.Financials peaked May 8th & Energy peaked June 11th. It is easy to lose sight of this in the headlines, but remembering these 2 points is key moving forward into the 3rd Quarter of 2009. Again, one cannot rule out a pop higher or continuation of the rally, but realizing the overhanging Bearish signals & implementing proper risk management measures is important.
Good Trading
-------------------------------------------------------
Market Messages Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/
Follow in Real Time on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
@chartingstock
Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands:
The Benefits Of Using Technical Analysis In Making Trading Decisions:
If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change
Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:
The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful:
-------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES
EARLY. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, commodities, stocks or any investment vehicle whatsoever. Futures, Options,
Stock, Currencies, Commodities and all trading HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the
futures and options markets (and all equity, currency, commodity markets). DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. No representation is being made
that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-
OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed herein and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. Stock market investments are risky. They don't provide fixed returns and past performance doesn't guarantee
future results. All securities investments entail the risk of great and sudden financial loss. Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your securities. No assurance is given that anything described here will be successful. The message contains neither recommendations nor solicitations to buy or sell securities. Documents are published solely
for information and educational purposes and do not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Nothing in the above should be construed as
investment advice, either on behalf of particular stocks or in regard to overall investment strategies. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, or correctness of the information contained in the above. Projections and
opinions expressed constitute the personal opinions of the authors and are set forth for informational and educational purposes only. I am not liable for
damages caused by actions taken as a result of the information in the above sites, guides, newsletters and e-books or any of their following pages, ads and
links. The expressed analysis and projections are subject to change without notice. No information above constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold
any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein. We do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature,
potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy, and you shall be
fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances,
investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:
BELOW MY POSTS & INTERNAL http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/LINKS ARE "SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT LINKS" I HAVE NO CONNECTION WITH THESE SPONSORED

ADVERTISEMENTS. PLEASE FOLLOW IN REAL TIME ON TWITTER AT: @CHARTINGSTOCKhttps://twitter.com/chartingstock Good Trading
© 2009 chartingstock All Rights Reserved
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Oil Failed To Hold Onto Gains After China Announced 160% Increase In Oil Reserves-A Bearish Signal-Possible Downtrend In Place

B"H

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/06/oil-bearish-failed-to-hold-onto-gains.html

Oil Bearish? Failed To Hold Onto Gains After China Announcement Increasing Oil Reserve By 160%-This Is A Bearish Signal

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*Oil Down 5.75% Since June 11, 2009 & Is Down Approximately 3.3% At This Point Today
*Yesterdsay China Announced They Would Increase Their Oil Reserves By 160% Adding 169 Million Barrels Of Oil
*Oil Rallied For One Day Off Of This News But Has Given That Entire Up Move Back
*Link Featuring 3 Oil Analysts Bearish Calls This Morning
*When An Asset Fails To Rally Or Hold Gains After Major Positive News Events It Is A Warning That The Asset Is Likely In Or Entering A Downtrend
Yesterday China announced they would increase their Oil Reserves by 160% adding an additional 169 Million Barrlesof Oil. This news succeeded in assisting Oil in rallying approximately 3.5% yesterday but Oil has given back that entire move today. When an asset fails to rally or fails to hold onto gains after a major "game changing" news it is a warning sign that the asset may be entering or is in a downtrend.

This morning Peter Beutell reiterated his near-intermediate term Bearish call on Oil suggesting that Oil is likely to hit $55/Nymex Barrel by the end of the 3rd Quarter. On June 11 I posted the a note (link below) calling attention to several technical indicators suggesting Oil was likely overbought & included Peter Beutells Bearish call that morning. Since then Oil has fallen approximately 5.75% & while pops higher are possible, keeping in mind the increased probability of a near-intermediate term downtrend in Oil is key.
To View Boris Schlossberg, From GFT Forex, Peter Beutel From Cameron Hanover & Todd Colvin, ofMF Global Bearish Oil Calls This Morning:
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
To View The June 11th Post With Technical Analysis & Peter Beutells Bearish Oil Call Please Click Here:

BOTTOM LINE
When a "game changing" event fails to provide a sustained pop higher for an asset it is a warning. While one cannot entirely rule out a continuation of the Oil rally, heeding the warning signals is likely wise.
Good Trading
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POSTED BY CHARTINGSTOCK AT 1:24 PM

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Monday, June 29, 2009

$US-Near-Intermediate Term Strength Increasingly Important, SPY


$US-Near-Intermediate Term Strength Increasingly Important

$US-Mixed Signals-Cannot Rule Out Strong Near-Intermediate Term Rally

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Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.
Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly:http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html
Messages/Posts Will Be Updated As Time Permits-With Additional Information & Links:
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*$US MIXED SIGNALS-STRONG NEAR-INTERMEDIATE TERM RALLY POSSIBLE
*S&P 500-At Key Support-Watching For Range Trading on SPY Between $87.53-$95.89
*Market Analysis By Art Cashin Who is Skeptical (Link Below)

$US Mixed Signals-CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY VERY STRONG DOLLAR RALLY NEAR-INTERMEDIATE TERM
For most of the past 8 months I have written about the long term $US Bearish Trend which seems to be developing. The massive selloff that occurred in early December 2008 followed by the equally steep rally from December-March has created an apparent Bearish Double Top for the $US. It is important to update those comments & note that since June 2, 2009 the $US has stabilized & seems to be building a base. Long term, there are very very serious problems with the $US but near-intermediate term one cannot rule out an extraordinary $US rally. At the moment many traders & analysts are split with some calling for a near term continuation of the Stock rally & others pointing to increasingly Bearish Market Internals & calling for a nearer term Market Correction. Many traders expect a fairly shocking Stock pullback at some point & the $US has a large impact on how the trading scenario will play out.

If the $US can continue to trend higher as it has done ever so slightly since June 2, it becomes from a technical perspective increasingly likely that a retracement higher of the March-June $US drop may occur. I wrote extensively in early June about how Oil was likely overbought & it turned out that those Blog Posts marked to the day the exact intermediate term top for Oil. The stabilization of the $US had a large part to do with this & keeping an eye on the $US is key because $US strength will very likely have a Bearish impact on US Stocks & Commodities. Long term, the $US appears trapped in a downtrend, but it is important to that a very strong rally in the $US is possible near-intermediate term. That possible $US rally is by no means a certainty, but keeping a close eye on $US price action should provide clues near term.

For 3 Analysts Views On the $US Please Visit These Bloomberg & CNBC Links:
"Dollar To Rise Most Since 1981"

2 Traders/Analysts Defending The US Dollar
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Bearish On Dollar
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

S&P 500/BEAR MARKET RALLY DISCUSSION NOTING VERY LOW VOLUME-ARTCASHIN:
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

BOTTOM LINE-RISK MANAGEMENT KEY-CANNOT RULE OUT CONTINUATION OF RECENT TRENDS-BUT AWARENESS OF POSSIBLE TREND REVERSALS IMPORTANT
Again, for both the $US & the S&P 500, one cannot rule out a continuation of recent trends. That being said, makret internals suggest that the S&P 500 is overbought & one can certainly make a case for a near-intermediate term $US retracement. Managing Risk Key.
Good Trading

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