B"H
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*UPDATE-Rally Possible Today-Thursday July 1st & 2nd Due To Begining of 3rd Quarter. Art Cashin Referenced This Trend Wednesday July 1st-But Warned That Other Factors May Inhibit This Traditional Trend.
*Gold-Despite Holding Morning Lows-Dennis Gartman Bearish Looking For Move Down Towards $880/Ounce
*S&P 500-Very Bearish Head & Shoulders Pattern-If Confirmed Increased Probability of Driving S&P 500 Down Towards 800
*SPY Down Spike= $91.38 At 4:05pm-Increased Probability Of Trading Down Towards $91.38, $90.08, $87.97 &$87.53 Initially
*SPY Up Spikes= $92.7408 At 4:15pm 4:30pm & 4:32pm-Increased Probability Of Trading Up Towards $92.7408, $95.08, $95.88
*Unemployment Data Released Thursday Morning-July 2 At 8:30am
*Oil Bearish Reversal Today Supports Possibility Of Oil Down Trend Since June 11, 2009-Increasingly Likely Oil Heads Lower Near-Intermediate Term
*Financials Peaked May 8th & Have Been Bearish Since. Important to Note That the 2 Main Drivers of the Spring Rally, Energy & Financials Have Reversed Direction & Have Been Showing Bearish Technicals For Some Time.
The S&P 500 Closed Down -.85% & Continues To Be Below The 200 Day Exponential Moving Average. The SPY ETFwhich closed down -.81% managed to close .03 cents above the 21 Day EMA & above the 100 & 50 day EMAs.Overall, one cannot rule out a pop higher towards the $95.88 level on the SPY. That being said, there is a very Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the S&P 500. For initial pattern confirmation the Index will need to drop below lows set on June 23 which correspond to $88.85 on the SPY. This pattern has the potential to drive the index down towards the 800 level & should be monitored for confirmation. Overall, Risk Management on Longs & Shorts continues to be key. A major market moving event is approaching with Thursday mornings July 2 8:30am Unemployment Report.
GOLD
Despite Gold holding its lows of the morning-it is important to note that respected commodities trader Dennis Gartmanis looking for Gold to trend down towards $880/Ounce.
To view todays previous comments on Gold please visit this link:
OIL
Oil had a upward price rejection this morning & the Bearish move especially one day after extraordinarily Bullish news coming from China regarding there Strategic Oil Reserves is worth noting. As I wrote about on the day Oil hit its current intermediate high, June 11 & again this morning, it is increasingly likely (not definite-but likely) that Oil trends lower in the coming weeks/months. For more:
BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 has traded in a tight range from approximately April 29 today July 2 between approximately 856.85-956.23. This morning Art Cashin noted a large % move is coming but it is still unclear whether that move will be a Break "Out"/Up or Down. Patience & overall risk management continue to be key. The 2 Sectors which powered most of the spring 2009 rally, Financials & Energy have reversed direction & continue to show Bearish signals.Financials peaked May 8th & Energy peaked June 11th. It is easy to lose sight of this in the headlines, but remembering these 2 points is key moving forward into the 3rd Quarter of 2009. Again, one cannot rule out a pop higher or continuation of the rally, but realizing the overhanging Bearish signals & implementing proper risk management measures is important.
Good Trading
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