$US-Near-Intermediate Term Strength Increasingly Important
$US-Mixed Signals-Cannot Rule Out Strong Near-Intermediate Term Rally
B"H
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*$US MIXED SIGNALS-STRONG NEAR-INTERMEDIATE TERM RALLY POSSIBLE
*S&P 500-At Key Support-Watching For Range Trading on SPY Between $87.53-$95.89
*Market Analysis By Art Cashin Who is Skeptical (Link Below)
$US Mixed Signals-CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY VERY STRONG DOLLAR RALLY NEAR-INTERMEDIATE TERM
For most of the past 8 months I have written about the long term $US Bearish Trend which seems to be developing. The massive selloff that occurred in early December 2008 followed by the equally steep rally from December-March has created an apparent Bearish Double Top for the $US. It is important to update those comments & note that since June 2, 2009 the $US has stabilized & seems to be building a base. Long term, there are very very serious problems with the $US but near-intermediate term one cannot rule out an extraordinary $US rally. At the moment many traders & analysts are split with some calling for a near term continuation of the Stock rally & others pointing to increasingly Bearish Market Internals & calling for a nearer term Market Correction. Many traders expect a fairly shocking Stock pullback at some point & the $US has a large impact on how the trading scenario will play out.
If the $US can continue to trend higher as it has done ever so slightly since June 2, it becomes from a technical perspective increasingly likely that a retracement higher of the March-June $US drop may occur. I wrote extensively in early June about how Oil was likely overbought & it turned out that those Blog Posts marked to the day the exact intermediate term top for Oil. The stabilization of the $US had a large part to do with this & keeping an eye on the $US is key because $US strength will very likely have a Bearish impact on US Stocks & Commodities. Long term, the $US appears trapped in a downtrend, but it is important to that a very strong rally in the $US is possible near-intermediate term. That possible $US rally is by no means a certainty, but keeping a close eye on $US price action should provide clues near term.
For 3 Analysts Views On the $US Please Visit These Bloomberg & CNBC Links:
"Dollar To Rise Most Since 1981"
2 Traders/Analysts Defending The US Dollar
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Bearish On Dollar
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
S&P 500/BEAR MARKET RALLY DISCUSSION NOTING VERY LOW VOLUME-ARTCASHIN:
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
BOTTOM LINE-RISK MANAGEMENT KEY-CANNOT RULE OUT CONTINUATION OF RECENT TRENDS-BUT AWARENESS OF POSSIBLE TREND REVERSALS IMPORTANT
Again, for both the $US & the S&P 500, one cannot rule out a continuation of recent trends. That being said, makret internals suggest that the S&P 500 is overbought & one can certainly make a case for a near-intermediate term $US retracement. Managing Risk Key.
Again, for both the $US & the S&P 500, one cannot rule out a continuation of recent trends. That being said, makret internals suggest that the S&P 500 is overbought & one can certainly make a case for a near-intermediate term $US retracement. Managing Risk Key.
Good Trading
