Invest Chart

Monday, June 29, 2009

$US-Near-Intermediate Term Strength Increasingly Important, SPY

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/06/us-mixed-signals-cannot-rule-out-strong.html

$US-Near-Intermediate Term Strength Increasingly Important

$US-Mixed Signals-Cannot Rule Out Strong Near-Intermediate Term Rally

B"H

Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.

Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly:http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

View The Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Messages/Posts Will Be Updated As Time Permits-With Additional Information & Links:

Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock

*$US MIXED SIGNALS-STRONG NEAR-INTERMEDIATE TERM RALLY POSSIBLE

*S&P 500-At Key Support-Watching For Range Trading on SPY Between $87.53-$95.89

*Market Analysis By Art Cashin Who is Skeptical (Link Below)

$US Mixed Signals-CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY VERY STRONG DOLLAR RALLY NEAR-INTERMEDIATE TERM

For most of the past 8 months I have written about the long term $US Bearish Trend which seems to be developing. The massive selloff that occurred in early December 2008 followed by the equally steep rally from December-March has created an apparent Bearish Double Top for the $US. It is important to update those comments & note that since June 2, 2009 the $US has stabilized & seems to be building a base. Long term, there are very very serious problems with the $US but near-intermediate term one cannot rule out an extraordinary $US rally. At the moment many traders & analysts are split with some calling for a near term continuation of the Stock rally & others pointing to increasingly Bearish Market Internals & calling for a nearer term Market Correction. Many traders expect a fairly shocking Stock pullback at some point & the $US has a large impact on how the trading scenario will play out.

If the $US can continue to trend higher as it has done ever so slightly since June 2, it becomes from a technical perspective increasingly likely that a retracement higher of the March-June $US drop may occur. I wrote extensively in early June about how Oil was likely overbought & it turned out that those Blog Posts marked to the day the exact intermediate term top for Oil. The stabilization of the $US had a large part to do with this & keeping an eye on the $US is key because $US strength will very likely have a Bearish impact on US Stocks & Commodities. Long term, the $US appears trapped in a downtrend, but it is important to that a very strong rally in the $US is possible near-intermediate term. That possible $US rally is by no means a certainty, but keeping a close eye on $US price action should provide clues near term.

For 3 Analysts Views On the $US Please Visit These Bloomberg & CNBC Links:

"Dollar To Rise Most Since 1981"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abVRzOIqXuBs

2 Traders/Analysts Defending The US Dollar

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1167483251&play=1

Bearish On Dollar

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1166927344&play=1

S&P 500/BEAR MARKET RALLY DISCUSSION NOTING VERY LOW VOLUME-ARTCASHIN:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31633528

BOTTOM LINE-RISK MANAGEMENT KEY-CANNOT RULE OUT CONTINUATION OF RECENT TRENDS-BUT AWARENESS OF POSSIBLE TREND REVERSALS IMPORTANT
Again, for both the $US & the S&P 500, one cannot rule out a continuation of recent trends. That being said, makret internals suggest that the S&P 500 is overbought & one can certainly make a case for a near-intermediate term $US retracement. Managing Risk Key.

Good Trading

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Charts-Moving Averages-Benefits Of Using Charts in Trading Decision Making & Interpreting Fundamental Economic or Earnings News

B"H

Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.

Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.

Blog: http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

Real Time At Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF BASIC CHART ANALYSIS & ITS ADVANTAGE OVER FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

*Fundamental Analysis-Citibank-A Company With A Great P/E Went On To Fall More Than 95% From 2007-2009. Berkshire Hathaway Focusing On Fundamental Analysis Fell More Than 50% Twice From 1998-2009

*Benefit Of Using Technical Analysis, Price Action in Assisting Trading Decisions

*Very Important To Note Difference Between Trending Markets & Range Bound Markets & How Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands Should Be Used in These Different Types of Markets

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS-HOW CITIGROUP WHICH HAD AN EXCELLENT P/E RATIO IN 2006 FELL MORE THAN 95% THROUGH 2009 & HOW BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY FELL MORE THAN 50% TWICE 1st FROM 1998-2000 & AGAIN FROM DECEMBER 2007-MARCH 2009

Twice today I spoke with friends interested in learning about "Investing". Both friends were quite intelligent but their line of questioning indicated major warning signals in their approach to stock selection & trading decision making. Both friends focused on fundamental analysis including Gross Domestic Product Numbers (GDP) released this morning & Price to Earnings Ratios (P/E). While most investors pay some attention to these statistics, in the past 30 years there has been a realization that Stocks with excellent P/Es can fall dramatically & that positive Economic figures such as GDP numbers can still be met with selling. Citibank (Quote=C) had an excellent P/E ratio as recently 2006 before falling more than 95%. Arguably one of the best Fundamental Investors of all time, Warren Buffett proves the intermediate shortfalls of not heeding warning signals from moving averages. Focusing on Fundamental analysis, Berkshire Hathaway fell From June 1998 through March 2000 more than 50%. After rising for many years thereafter, Berkshire once again proved the problem of not heeding warnings from technical analysis from December 2007 through March 2009 when Berkshire fell more than 55%

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-BENEFITS OF USING PRICE ACTION TO GUIDE BUY & SELL SIGNALS & HOW MOVING AVERAGES & BOLLINGER BANDS ASSIST TRADERS IN DETERMINGIN BUY & SELL SIGNALS & THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN "TRENDING MARKETS" & "RANGE BOUND MARKETS"

Justin Mamis in his books "When To Sell" & "How To Buy" notes that price reaction to economic news or earnings data is far more revealing than the data itself. If a company comes out with seemingly amazing earnings but drops 10% in after hours trading it is likely that traders focusedon another piece of data. Alternatively, if appealingly less than stellar GDP numbers are released & yet the market rallies it is likely that their are underlying strengths that are serving as a base for the market.

It is very important to note that markets their are major differences in using moving averages & Bollinger Bands in markets that are trending versus markets that are range bound.

Range Bound: moving sideways between levels of lower resistance & upper support use moving averages to assist in interpreting important levels within the range.

Trending Markets: or rising consistently with pullbacks to rising levels of support use moving averages & Bollinger Bands to help guide possible purchase levels & a method to confirm or invalidate trends.

Chart Analysis assists traders in focusing on arguably the most important piece of data to traders, price action. A stock or other asset that is able to rise above it's 200 day movingaverage (average closing price of the stock for the past 200 trading days) it is a sign of strength & upward price momentum in the stock. If an asset falls below the 200 day moving average, it is a sign that their are problems being revealed in price action. A very simple rule of thumb some passive traders use is buying assets as they cross above their 200 day moving average & selling assets as they cross below their 200 day moving average. A closer analysis of charts would implement other key moving averages including the 21 day, 50 day & 100 day moving averages amongst others. Moving averages act as support for assets as they fall & they act as resistance as assets rise.

Even further analysis may include Bollinger Bands which can be used to measure both 1) assets that are "overbought" or "oversold" or 2) an asset that has begun a new trend. In "range bound" markets i.e. trading between a defined up level & low level Bollinger Bands can provide 1 factor used in determining overbought or oversold levels. If a market is "trending" i.e. rising steadily or falling steadily, Bollinger Bands can be used to both confirm the trending nature of the asset & measure projected price targets consistent with the trend in place. There are many many more ways to interpretprice action but Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands are two widely used basic measures traders can use to help identify possible price targets favorable for buying & selling stocks, commodities or currencies.

P/E RATIOS, ECONOMIC NEWS & ALL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN PRICE ACTION-CHARTS WILL REVEAL THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION

The cumulative information from P/E ratios, GDP figures etc. will be reflected in price action. Using charts to read past headline economic & earnings materials is an excellent way to interpret successful buy & sell signals. It is important to note that chart analysis is only 1 part of successful investing. Learning to use these pieces of information along with proper risk managment techniques including the consistent implementation of stop-loss orders or protective options as a hedge are all vital steps towards investing success.

For a further use of moving averages including analyzing an asset using moving average bands which take average daily highs & average daily lows thereby forming a band giving buy & sell signals. The "moving average bands" analysis was doene by Sandy Jadeja from ODLSecurities who is a regular Technical Analysis contributor at CNBC Europe.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1162331342&play=1

Good Trading

-------------------------------------------------------

Posts Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Follow in Real Time on Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

@chartingstock

Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands

http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change

Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:

http://www.twitter.com/chartingstock

The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY.

This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, commodities, stocks or any investment vehicle whatsoever. Futures, Options, Stock, Currencies, Commodities and all trading HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets (and all equity, currency, commodity markets). DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed herein and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations.

Stock market investments are risky. They don't provide fixed returns and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. All securities investments entail the risk of great and sudden financial loss. Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your securities. No assurance is given that anything described here will be successful. The message contains neither recommendations nor solicitations to buy or sell securities. Documents are published solely for information and educational purposes and do not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Nothing in the above should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of particular stocks or in regard to overall investment strategies.

No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, or correctness of the information contained in the above. Projections and opinions expressed constitute the personal opinions of the authors and are set forth for informational and educational purposes only. I am not liable for damages caused by actions taken as a result of the information in the above sites, guides, newsletters and e-books or any of their following pages, ads and links. The expressed analysis and projections are subject to change without notice. No information above constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein. We do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature, potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy, and you shall be fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Real Time At Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

BELOW MY POSTS & INTERNAL "http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/" LINKS ARE "SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT LINKS" I HAVE NO CONNECTION WITH THESE SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENTS. PLEASE FOLLOW IN REAL TIME ON TWITTER AT: @CHARTINGSTOCK http://twitter.com/chartingstock Good Trading

Charts Vs Fundamental Analysis-Benefits Of Using Charts in Trading Decision Making & Interperting Fundamental Economic or Earnings News

B"H

Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.

Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.

Blog: http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

Real Time At Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF BASIC CHART ANALSYIS & ITS ADVANTAGE OVER FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

*Fundamnetal Analysis-Citibank-A Company With A Great P/E Went On To Fall More Than 95% From 2007-2009. Berkshire Hathaway Focusing On Fundamental Anaysis Fell More Than 50% Twice From 1998-2009

*Benefit Of Using Technical Analysis, Price Action in Assiting Trading Decisions

*Very Important To Note Difference Between Trending Markets & Range Bound Markets & How Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands Should Be Used in These Different Types of Markets

Twice today I spoke with friends interested in learning about "Investing". Both friends were quite intelligent but their line of questioning indicated major warning signals in their approach to stock selection & trading decision making. Both friends focused on fundamental analysis including Gross Domestic Product Numbers (GDP) released this morning & Price to Earnings Ratios (P/E). While most investors pay some attention to these statistics, in the past 30 years there has been a realization that Stocks with excellent P/Es can fall dramatically & that positive Economic figures such as GDP numbers can still be met with selling. Citibank (Quote=C) had an excellent P/E ratio as recently 2006 before falling more than 95%. Argueably one of the best Fundamental Investors of all time, Warren Buffett proves the intermediate shortfalls of not heeding warning signals from moving averages. Focusing on Fundamental analysis, Berkshire Hathaway fell From June 1998 through March 2000 more than 50%. After rising for many years thereafter, Berkshire once again proved the problem of not heeding warnings from technial analysis from December 2007 through March 2009 when Berkshire fell more than 55%

Justin Mamis in his books "When To Sell" & "How To Buy" notes that price reaction to economic news or earnings data is far more revealing than the data itself. If a company comes out with seemingly amazing earnings but drops 10% in after hours trading it is likely that tradersfocusedon another piece of data. Alternatively, if appealingly less than stellar GDP numbers are released & yet the market rallies it is likely that their are underlying strengths that are serving as a base for the market.

It is very important to note that markets their are major differences in using moving averages & Bollinger Bands in markets that are trending versus marekts that are range bound.

Range Bound: moving sideways between levels of lower resistance & upper support use moving averages to assist in interpeting importnat levels within the range.

Even further analysis may include Bollinger Bands which can be used to measure both 1) assets that are "overbought" or "oversold" or 2) an asset that has begun a new trend. In "range bound" markets i.e. trading between a defined up level & low level BollingerBands can provide 1 factor used in determining overbought or oversold levels. If a market is "trending" i.e. rising steadily or falling steadily, Bollinger Bands can be used to both confirm the trending nature of the asset & measure projected price targets consistent with the trend in place. There are many many more ways tointerpretprice action but Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands are two widely used basic measures traders can use to help identify possible price targets favorable for buying & selling stocks, commodities or currencies.

P/E RATIOS, ECONOMIC NEWS & ALL FUNDAMENTAL ANAYSIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN PRICE ACTION-CHARTS WILL REVEAL THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION

The cumulative information from P/E ratios, GDP figures etc. will be reflected in price action. Using charts to read past headline economic & earnings materials is an excellent way to interpert successful buy & sell signals. It is important to note that chart analysis is only 1 part of successful investing. Learning to use these pieces of information along with proper risk managment techniques including the consistent implementation of stop-loss orders or protective options as a hedge are all vital steps towards investing success.

For more on moving averages specifically please visit this link from Sandy Jadeja fromODLSecurities who is a regular Technical Analysis contributor at CNBC Europe.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1162331342&play=1

Good Trading

-------------------------------------------------------

Posts Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Follow in Real Time on Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

@chartingstock

Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands

http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change

Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:

http://www.twitter.com/chartingstock

The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY.

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Real Time At Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

Risk Management Key As Volatility Increases, Large % Moves Likely Near Market Moving Events Now Through End of Week & Into Summer, Near Term Technicals Are Bearish

B"H

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/06/risk-management-key-as-volatility.html

Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.

Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.

Blog: http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

Messages/Posts Will Be Updated As Time Permits-With Additional Information & Links

Real Time At Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

*Intra Day Price Swings Are Increasing-Important For Traders To Adjust Accordingly

*Overall Technicals Have Deteriorated BUT POPS HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE Especially Close To "Market Moving Events" Like Todays Oil Inventories at 10:30-35am, The Federal Reserve Announcement At Approximately 2:15pm, Tomorrows 8:30am Jobless Claims & Ben Bernanke Testimony.

*Continued Increased Probability SPY Reaches $87.53 As Written About Since June 2 When The SPY Was Trading At $95.37
*Key Exponential Moving Averages Have Been Broken To The Downside Including 21, 50 & 200. The 100 Day EMA Is Acting As Support-Barely.
*From April 29th-Now the S&P 500 has trade in a range from 856.85 to 956.23. Watch To See If This Range Continues To Hold Or Whether Support Levels Give Way To The Downside.
*S&P 500 Tested 889 Support Yesterday & Technicals Suggest A Drop Towards At Least 850-880 Remains Likely. Worth Repeating IntraDay Price Swings Are Increasing & One Cannot Rule Out A Continuation Of The Rally. This Point is Most Important For Those Currently Short The Market. Technicals Have Been Favoring Short Side Trades Since June 2 As Posted On This Blog Then. Overall Risk Management Techniques As Market Develops Up Or Down Continues To Be Key.

*Continues To Be Wise To Reduce Overall Market Risk Exposure For Both Long & Short Positions

The S&P 500 tested 889 yesterday & was able to make a weak bounce higher. The S&P 500 traded in a tight range yesterday featuring large volume sell blocks & buying programs throughout the day. Technicals have deteriorated since June 2 & while one cannot rule out a strong bounce higher or even a continuation of the rally, it is absolutely essential that traders have overall risk management measures in place for both long & short positions. The S&P 500 has dropped below all but 1 of the key exponential moving averages including the 200, 21 & 50 which should act as support. The 1 EMA which is holding is the 100 day. Many traders are looking for a possible bounce higher around the 850-880 level & one cannot rule out that bounce developing around one of the many market moving events this week including:

10:30am-10:35am Oil inventories

Federal Reserve FOMC Release At Approximately 2:15pm

Thursday 8:30am Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday Ben Bernanke Testimony

For A Full List of Economic Events This Week: http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

That being said, Technical Patterns & Bearish Market Internals including Volume & Negative Advance Decline ratios currently favor Bears. This can change in an instant but realizing the overall current technical situation can assist traders greatly. There is a famous adage many traders concerning "Catching A Falling Knife". The idea is that many traders mistakenly try to buy into a falling market too early. Art Cashin referred to this possibility last week when he said that one scenario could be the market falling to the much expected levels of support which correspond to the approximate 850-880 level on the S&P 500 & then continuing to drop below those levels.

As overall market volatility & weekly IntraDay price swings increase, it is wise for traders to tighten risk management techniques for both long & short positions. New traders especially should spend time learning to use options & stop-loss orders to reduce portfolio risk:

http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

SEASONAL MARKET TRENDS SUGGEST VOLATILITY MAY RAISE FROM NOW-MID JULY

ADJUSTING OVERALL MARKET RISK ACCORDINGLY MAY BE WISE.

Seasonal Market trends suggests their is an increased probability IntraDay volatility swings may continue to increase from now through mid July & again from mid August through late October. Since April 29th the S&P 500 has trade in a range from 856.85 to 956.23. This range may hold but many investors continue to underestimate the possibility that the range may also be broken to the downside. The complacency continues to put them at risk to a market which is technically very weak. This is not to say the rally cannot continue. It simply points out that most investors do not have risk management measures in place in case downside levels of support are broken. Near term, one can expect large intraday swings to be more commonplace. Blog posts since the the June 2 peak have detailed increased probabilities of a move towards the $87.53 level for the SPY. Technicals continue to suggest the intermediate term trend very well may have shifted to Bearish. Further proof is needed in the form of downside support levels being broken to confirm a change in intermediate trend from Bullish to Bearish. Managing risk for long & short positions will very likely differentiate those who trade the likely volatile summer successfully & those that don't.

Good Trading

-------------------------------------------------------

Posts Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Follow in Real Time on Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

@chartingstock

Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands

http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change

Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:

http://www.twitter.com/chartingstock

The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY.

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Real Time At Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

Monday, June 22, 2009

Oil Bearish Developments & S&P 500 Technical Deterioration-Pops Higher Cannot Be Ruled Out-Risk Management Key

B"H
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.
Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.
Blog: http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html
Messages/Posts Will Be Updated As Time Permits-With Additional Information & Links
Real Time At Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

OIL-Bearish Technical Developments Including Channel Break & Candlestick Analysis:

This would be consistent with the Bearish Oil indicators sent out more than one week ago in the Chartingstock link below which was published on June 11-the current intermediate term top for Oil prior to the OIH-Oil Service Holders current 12.32% drop from those highs & Oils approximate 6.5% drop from those June 11th current intermediate term highs. Overall, just as with the S&P 500, one cannot rule out a possible pop higher & continuation of the Oil Bubble/Rally. That being said-it continues to be extremely important that any long Oil or Energy positions be hedged or otherwise protected from probable continued near to intermediate term downside risk. Despite the very long term positive settup for Oil near to intermediate term technicals suggest great caution is warranted for Oil.

Oils Bearish Channel Break May Be A Warning of More Downside Risk According To Zug A Switzerland Based Consultant For Petromatrix GmbH & Published on Bloomberg.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDnM4ne.Qb50

Oil Candlestick Analysis By FuturesTechs.com Ltd Shows Increased Probabilities of Bearish Downside Levels. Watching For Confirmation of the Bearish Settup With A Break Below $71.10 & Then Possible Move Down Towards Trendline At $67.65 for ICE Futures Barrel of Brent Crude Oil & Published on Bloomberg.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avKjoD0p.a0U

Oil Article Published By Chartingstock on June 11, the current Intermediate Term Top Pointing Out Numerous Warning Signs & Including Peter Beutell's Analysis Pointing To A Likely Top In Oil & A Potential Drop Down Towards $39.80 In The Late Fall Or Early 2010

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/06/oil-overbought-likely-near-term-etf.html

S&P 500-Technicals & Internals Deteriorated Last Week Suggesting Further Downside Movement Probable Near Term. A Continuation of the Rally Cannot Be Ruled Out But Risk Management Essential:

This morning in the futures markets the S&P 500 is trading down approximately 1%. As I wrote over the weekend, technicals & market internals deteriorated last week & there continues to be an increased probability of the S&P 500 testing the 870-880 level in the near term. One cannot rule out a continuation of the rally but as I have written about consistently for weeks, overall risk management measures for Long & Short positions continue to be of the utmost importance. When one considers the numerous Bearish Technical developments for Oil & Energy as written about above & the fact that Oil/Energy have been one of of the leaders for the rally up until this point, it further accentuates the need for protective options & stop-loss orders.

There are 3 major market moving events this week including the Federal Reserve Meeting Interest Rate announcement Wednesday June 24th at approximately 2:15pm, Treasury aucitons Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday & Initial Jobless Claims Wednesday at 8:30am. Since market technicals & internals have been deteriorating it remains wise for traders to continue to increase risk management measures especially on long positions.

For further detailed S&P 500 analysis please visit the 2 pieces written over the weekend:

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/06/are-investors-under-estimating-current.html

http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/06/s-500-significant-risk-to-downside_21.html

For The Excellent Video Market Analysis from "Tickerville" done by Quint Tatro & his father Bill Tatros discussing the both the current market technicals & the possibility (note: possibility not certainty) for dramatically lower levels please visit this link: http://www.tickerville.com/index.php/site/comments/fathers_day_with_pops/

BOTTOM LINE

As always appropriate risk management techniques should reward traders & investors alike in the near term. Many very respected traders & money managers continue to hold 80-99% cash levels after the spring rally. They are neither long or short the market accepting that the rise from the Marhc levels has been quite dramatic & that historical comparisons between similar stock market crashes & subsequent rises indicates that a further retracement while not a certainty is likely. The same can be said for Oil which has experienced the second parabolic bubble move in two years. While one cannot say a continued Oil pullback is a certainty, having appropriate risk management measures in place should reward traders who continue to be long Oil & Energy positions.

Good Trading

-------------------------------------------------------

Posts Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/

Follow in Real Time on Twitter: http://twitter.com/chartingstock

@chartingstock

Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.

The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands

http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/2009/05/stop-loss-orders-can-save-you-thousands.html

If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change

Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:

http://www.twitter.com/chartingstock

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Sunday, June 21, 2009

S&P 500-Significant Risk To The Downside Remains Possible Despite Possibility That Rally May Continue-Managing Risk Key

B"H
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below. Comments & Suggestions Are Always Appreciated.
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*The Rally May Continue Higher & Pops Higher Are Quite Certainly Possible
*S&P 500 Dropping Below Early March Lows Is Very Possible
*Markets Often Rally From Mid-May Through Mid-July. The S&P 500 Has Topped Out Hitting a High on May 7-8th & Topping Above That Level For A Brief Period in Early June. Seasonality Suggests Caution Warranted On The Long Side From At Least Now-Mid July & Again From Mid-Late August/September Through October
*Continued Increased Probability of SPY Reaching $87.53 At The Minimum--But Pops Higher Are Also Possible.
*Managing Risk Continues To Be Key

Much has been written on about the "Lows" put in in early March & Green Shoots. While time may prove those levels to be real Bear Market lows, it is vital for investors & traders to realize that significantly lower lows remain a very real possibility. In early March I wrote that their were 2 camps of technical analysts. The first were looking at a trednline running from the 1974 Recession lows touching the October 1987 Panic Low & reaching to the March levels. That trendline corresponds with the approximate 7,500 day moving average on the S&P 500.

The 2nd camp of technical analysts saw a possible major bounce higher around the 660-685 level & then an utter collapse. That would correspond with what happened in the 1929-1932 era. The first drop was quite large & strangely quite similar in percentage to the drop the market experienced up until March of this year. Then their was a massive rally that lasted until mid April 1930. As I wrote in February & March after that 1st rally in 1929-1930 there were many people who exclaimed the worst is over & that everything was good from there on out. While the current situation may very well turn out differently, there is an outstanding underestimation as to the risk to the downside here. Yes, the bottom may be in for the market & there is astrong possibility thatthe market may pop higher here in the near term, but overall it is somewhat troubling the underestimation as to the stock market technical weakness & the economic problems that persist. As always, risk management is key.

I have included a video from Quint Tatro, a successful trader, managing director of Tatro Capital LLC & who runs "Tickerville". Mr. Tatro or "The Q Man" as he goes by is a Technical analyst & trader who overall sees the possibility of a bounce higher but is quite realistic as to the downside risk that remains. His father, aprofessional Money Manager & Trader for more than 30 years appears in the video & it is mostly his fathers fundamental economic views that are expressed in the video below. As traders will often say, it is important to trade the Market as it happens. Simply seeing long term possible risks to the downside provides little benefit if a large rally ensues from these current levels which is also possible. That being said-realizing the possible risk to the downside is absolutely vital at this point. Over the weekend I thought again about the analysis I had done on the Great Depression Dow Jones Industrial Average performance & thought it would be useful to post charts of the Dow from that period. By showing only the 1st rally in late 1929 many people would have agreed that the market despite the drop looked strong. Managing risk moving froward from that 1st rally would have successfully kept traders out of the market as the next leg down occurred. After watching the Tickerville video, I realized that the video below does a good job of conveying the possible downside risk that I had wanted to write about. Again, lower lows may not occur, but realizing that they are possible is important.
Good Trading
Quint Tatro's Video With His Father Who Is Also A Money Manager Discussing Possible Downside Risks To The Market
http://www.tickerville.com/index.php/site/comments/fathers_day_with_pops/ *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED TICKERVILLE.COM, 2009-POSTED WITH PERMISSION
Mr. Bill Tatro's Web-Site:
http://www.billtatro.com/
Note, While The Overall Fundamental Economic Issues May Cause The Stock Market Collapse Discussed in This Video-It is Imperative Traders Realize The Inherent Problems of Time Decay With The Leveraged ETF's Talked About In The Video. There Very Well May Be Other More Profitable Or Better Risk/Reward Ways To Capitalize Off Of This Market Scenario If It Unfolds. As Always-Risk Management Is Key.

Again, Good Trading From Charting Stock
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Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY.

This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, commodities, stocks or any investment vehicle whatsoever. Futures, Options, Stock, Currencies, Commodities and all trading HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets (and all equity, currency, commodity markets). DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed herein and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations.

Stock market investments are risky. They don't provide fixed returns and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. All securities investments entail the risk of great and sudden financial loss. Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your securities. No assurance is given that anything described here will be successful. The message contains neither recommendations nor solicitations to buy or sell securities. Documents are published solely for information and educational purposes and do not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Nothing in the above should be construed asinvestment advice, either on behalf of particular stocks or in regard to overall investment strategies.
No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, or correctness of the information contained in the above. Projections and opinions expressed constitute the personal opinions of the authors and are set forth for informational and educational purposes only. I am not liable for damages caused by actions taken as a result of the information in the above sites, guides, newsletters and e-books or any of their following pages, ads and links. The expressed analysis and projections are subject to change without notice. No information above constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein. We do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature, potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction orinvestment strategy, and you shall be fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

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Invest Chart

Monday, June 29, 2009

$US-Near-Intermediate Term Strength Increasingly Important, SPY

$US-Mixed Signals-Cannot Rule Out Strong Near-Intermediate Term Rally

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Charts-Moving Averages-Benefits Of Using Charts in Trading Decision Making & Interpreting Fundamental Economic or Earnings News

Charts Vs Fundamental Analysis-Benefits Of Using Charts in Trading Decision Making & Interperting Fundamental Economic or Earnings News

Risk Management Key As Volatility Increases, Large % Moves Likely Near Market Moving Events Now Through End of Week & Into Summer, Near Term Technicals Are Bearish

Monday, June 22, 2009

Oil Bearish Developments & S&P 500 Technical Deterioration-Pops Higher Cannot Be Ruled Out-Risk Management Key

Sunday, June 21, 2009

S&P 500-Significant Risk To The Downside Remains Possible Despite Possibility That Rally May Continue-Managing Risk Key

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