B"H
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Full Disclaimer below.
Please Remember Profit Protecting "Option Strategies" & Stop-Loss Orders May Help Protect Profits & Cap Losses Quickly.
Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
*Options Expiration Today-Increased Volatility Up & Down Especially First 1 Hour & Last 2 Hours Of Trading
*Art Cashin Notes Market Near Term "Overbought"-Although The Rally *Could* Continue-Risk Management Key http://www.cnbc.com/id/31948775
*Seasonality Suggests An Overall Up Trend From Approximately July 15th-August 11th But Dips Along The Way Likely.
*Downward Chart Spikes For SPY
*GLD Update-Could Very Easily Follow Market If Near Term Pull Back Develops Although Longer Term...
*Natural Gas-Mixed Signals-1 Technical Analysis Article Which Is Quite Bullish BUT Impt To Note The Major Flaws In The UNG ETF Which Could Very Easily Make That ETF Underperform The Underlying Commodity. Additionally Worth Noting Other Technical Analysts Pointing to additional lower lows for Nat Gas/UNG. Overall Risk For Longing Or Shorting Nat Gas High.
*Doug Kass Article-Cash Preservation Key
*Bottom Line-Likely Current Resistance Levels Cause Market To Stall Or Pullback Although Continuation Of Rally Through Mid August Possible. Longer Term-Risk Management Essential
This morning marks Options Expiration & as always traders should expect an increased level of volatility on the up & down side especially close to the opening & closing bells. Overall the market is near term overbought after a large run from Monday morning through today. There is an increased probability of Stocks & Commodities giving back part of this weeks gains especially after Options Expiration which is today. Likely Levels which the SPY could hit if a give back develops include:
$93.3655 $93.23 $93.04 $93.015 $90.6795 $87.24 $86.0069 Although it is essential to note that a bounce before the $86-$87.24 level is also likely. Overall seasonal trends suggest an uptrend from July 15th-August 11th but drops along the way are also quite likely. As always risk management is key. Several respected traders speculate that at lest part of this weeks gains can be attributed to market players proping up certain Stocks & ETF's in order to trigger highly profitable options trades. Whether or not that is the case risk management as always continues to be essential. Near term, GLD will very likely follow the market down if a pullback develops. Longer term it remains very likely that GLD will trend towards $97.80. Again, risk management is key.
NATURAL GAS-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & EXTREME RISK WITH THE ETF UNG
Included below is a technical analysis article on Natural Gas. It is Worth Repeating Their are major major Flaws With The ETF UNG & That There Are Other Technical Analysts Who Continue To Be Quite Bearish On Nat Gas. The ETF UNG experienced an intraday trading halt over concerns by the CFTC on possible Market "Manipulation" whereby the ETF was artificially proping up the price of the underlying asset Natural Gas. There is speculation over how share issuance of this ETF will evolve in the coming months. Overall, the risk in trading Nat Gas from the long or short side is incredibly high & that risk is exponentially higher when trading the ETF UNG. Historical analysis shows that UNG has has been a complete disaster losing approximately 80% of its value from its peak in June of 2008 to now. Again, The incredible risk associated with Nat Gas & Especially UNG should be included in any possible decision.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis From Phil Flynn, Vice President Of Research At PFG Best in Chicago Posted On Bloomberg.com
BOTTOM LINE
As respected Hedge Fund Manager Doug Kass noted in the article below, Cash preservation continues to be key.
The analysis in his article is quite good & worth reading. The bottom line from my perspective is risk management cannot be understated moving forward. Taking a broader perspective of the market, the S&P 500 remains locked in a relatively tight trading range from approximately April 29th-Now. Yes the rally may continue. That being said, for longer term (i.e. past the next 30 days), ignoring the major problems in the economy & the major long term technical Bearish trends will very likely punish traders who do not implement proper downside protection.
Good Trading
-------------------------------------------------------
Market Messages Available at My Blog: http://chartingstock.blogspot.com/
Follow in Real Time on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
@chartingstock
Comments & Suggestions Are Appreciated.
The Proper Use of Protective "Hedging" Options, Stop-Loss & Trailing Stop-Loss Orders May Be Helpful & Can Save You Thousands
The Benefits Of Using Technical Analysis In Making Trading Decisions:
If You Are Reading This Post On A Secondary Web-Site--Please Be Aware That Things Often Change
Very Rapidly In A Trading Day. Real Time Updates on Twitter Are Most Up To Date:
The Main Site Will Be Updated As Time Permits & Is Most Useful:
-------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer--The Above is For Educational Purposes Only, Please read the full Disclaimer below. STOP-LOSS ORDERS MAY BE A HELPFUL TOOL TO LIMITING LOSSES EARLY. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, commodities, stocks or any investment vehicle whatsoever. Futures, Options, Stock, Currencies, Commodities and all trading HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets (and all equity, currency, commodity markets). DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed herein and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. Stock market investments are risky. They don't provide fixed returns and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. All securities investments entail the risk of great and sudden financial loss. Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your securities. No assurance is given that anything described here will be successful. The message contains neither recommendations nor solicitations to buy or sell securities. Documents are published solely for information and educational purposes and do not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Nothing in the above should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of particular stocks or in regard to overall investment strategies.No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, or correctness of the information contained in the above. Projections and opinions expressed constitute the personal opinions of the authors and are set forth for informational and educational purposes only. I am not liable for
damages caused by actions taken as a result of the information in the above sites, guides, newsletters and e-books or any of their following pages, ads and links. The expressed analysis and projections are subject to change without notice. No information above constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein. We do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature, potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy, and you shall be fully responsible for any investment decisions you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Real Time At Twitter: https://twitter.com/chartingstock
Stop-Losses Can Save You Thousands-Please Read:
BELOW MY POSTS & INTERNAL http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/ LINKS ARE "SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT LINKS" I HAVE NO CONNECTION WITH THESE SPONSORED
ADVERTISEMENTS. PLEASE FOLLOW IN REAL TIME ON TWITTER AT: @CHARTINGSTOCKhttp://twitter.com/chartingstock Good Trading © 2009 chartingstock All Rights Reserved Please Feel Free To Forward Links To The Blog. Thank You
